Global recovery has started, says IMF

(WASHINGTON) The global economy is beginning to recover from the worst recession since World War II, one that has left ‘deep scars’ likely to affect consumers and businesses for years, said Olivier Blanchard, the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

‘The recovery has started,’ Mr Blanchard said in a paper that the Washington-based lender released on Tuesday. ‘The crisis has left deep scars, which will affect both supply and demand for many years to come.’

He said that the financial crisis had made Americans more conscious of ‘tail risks’ – events that are unlikely to occur but when they do, have devastating consequences.

That means that US consumers are unlikely to return to their free-spending ways, and both the US and its trading partners will have to adjust. Emerging Asian countries, especially China, must play a big role.

‘From the point of view of the United States, a decrease in China’s current account surplus would help increase demand and sustain the US recovery,’ he said. ‘That would result in more US imports which would help sustain world recovery.’

But in order for China to boost domestic demand, it will need to provide a stronger social safety net and increase household access to credit, which will encourage its consumers to save less and spend more.

‘Both higher Chinese import demand and a higher (yuan) will increase US net exports,’ he said.

The IMF, which has rescued economies from Pakistan to Iceland in the past year, is advising officials around the world to keep economic stimulus programmes in place no longer than necessary to chart a path to sustainable growth.

In his paper, Mr Blanchard says that the process requires a ‘delicate rebalancing act’. Capital flows to emerging markets ‘may not fully come back in the next few years,’ he said. While most economies may expand for the next few quarters, ‘growth will not be quite strong enough to reduce unemployment, which is not expected to crest until some time next year,’ he said.

Mr Blanchard cautioned that rising government debt levels, particularly in advanced economies, mean that fiscal stimulus programmes cannot continue for ‘very long’ unless private consumption and investment replace public support for growth.

‘All this means that we may not go back to the old growth path, that potential output may be lower than it was before the crisis,’ he said in the paper. ‘Sustaining the nascent recovery is likely to require delicate rebalancing acts, both within and across countries.’

A sustained global recovery may hinge on the ability of nations in Asia to boost domestic demand to levels that help US exports, he said.

‘The United States was not only at the origin of the crisis, it is central to any world recovery,’ he said.

An inability or unwillingness by China, Japan and other Asian economic powers to reduce their current account surpluses may lead to a slower US recovery and political pressure to pump in more fiscal stimulus and borrow more, eventually raising questions about US inability to trim debt.

‘Fiscal deficits might be maintained for too long, leading to issues of debt sustainability, worries about US government bonds and the dollar, and causing large capital flows from the United States,’ Mr Blanchard said. ‘Dollar depreciation may take place, but in a disorderly fashion, leading to another episode of instability and high uncertainty, which could itself derail the recovery.’

In the short term, most countries will see positive economic growth for the next few quarters, Mr Blanchard said, although it will be probably too tepid to reduce unemployment, which is not expected to crest until some time next year. — Bloomberg, Reuters

Source: Business Times, 20 Aug 2009

Full recovery to take two years or more: Expert

Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman says worst is over, but world economy still needs second stimulus

KUALA LUMPUR: Aggressive stimulus spending by governments helped the world avoid a second Great Depression, but full economic recovery will take two years or more, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman said yesterday.

He added that the worst of the global crisis was over, with economic and exports growth showing signs of stabilisation.

Still, recovery is likely to be ‘disappointing’ as government spending is not sustainable in the long run and the unemployment rate is still lagging behind, he told a two-day World Capital Markets Symposium yesterday in Kuala Lumpur.

There is not likely to be any ‘Phoenix-like’ recovery, such as in the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis when economies expanded dramatically, led by a sharp rebound in exports, he said.

‘We have managed to avoid a second Great Depression…but full recovery is at least two years and probably more,’ Mr Krugman said. Asia is likely to see a faster rebound than the United States and Europe, partly driven by recovery in manufacturing exports, he added.

Mr Krugman said there was still room for the US government to increase spending to boost growth, despite concerns over its swollen budget deficit.

In an interview with CNBC in Kuala Lumpur yesterday, he added that the world economy needs a second stimulus if it is to avoid the fate of Japan in the 1990s, when the country was stuck with years of sluggish growth.

The US Labour Department last Friday showed that the jobless rate in the world’s largest economy dipped for the first time in 15 months, while workers’ hours and pay edged upwards.

It said a net total of 247,000 jobs were lost last month, the fewest in a year and a drastic improvement from the 443,000 jobs that vanished in June.

But it is hard to pinpoint the sources of future growth as the financial crisis has left the world with excess capacity and the possibility of high unemployment everywhere, according to Mr Krugman.

He said: ‘Right now, I think the world as a whole kind of looks like Japan in the early 90s. Not a catastrophe, but we really don’t know how we get serious growth going. Actually, the slump globally has been much worse than anything Japan had during that lost decade.’

More stimulus money is key for a sustainable recovery as fears of inflation are overdone, Mr Krugman told CNBC.

‘We really should have a second stimulus,’ he said, dismissing fears of price rises as a result of too much cash in the system.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Source: Straits Times, 11 Aug 2009

Worst of crisis behind us in Asia: Tony Tan

But global outlook and protectionism are still a concern

THE worst of the crisis seems to be over for Asia, which will emerge stronger owing to its sound fundamentals, said Government of Singapore Investment Corporation (GIC) deputy chairman and executive director Tony Tan yesterday.

He sounded a cautiously upbeat message at the annual Economic Society of Singapore dinner, noting that the crisis also presented opportunities for Asian financial institutions and markets.

‘The worst seems to be behind us in Asia. Asian economies are now expected to see continued improvement through 2010,’ Dr Tan said at the event, held at Swissotel The Stamford.

While cautiously optimistic in the short term, he also warned of possible risks and challenges to recovery, such as trade protectionism and a global environment which does not stabilise and recover by next year.

In July 2007, at another event, Dr Tan spoke of dark clouds on the horizon for financial markets. In April last year, well before the financial mayhem that erupted in September, he warned the world could be facing its worst recession in 30 years.

Last night, he noted that the region could emerge from the crisis in a better position, and reorientate itself to ensure more balanced and sustainable development.

Dr Tan said: ‘Asia’s fundamentals are generally sound, policymakers have lots of flexibility, and the population is hard-working and educated.’

The economic downturn has presented regional financial institutions and markets with ‘tremendous opportunities over the next decade’, he noted.

This is because Western banks will probably be unable to meet the capital demand needed to finance Asia’s growth due to constraints and re-regulation.

‘This leaves the playing field unusually open for Asian financial institutions and markets, particularly for the next three to five years,’ he said.

However, regional banks and markets will need to develop quickly to fill this gap, he added.

Other implications of the crisis for Asia are the volatile capital flows and asset bubbles which policymakers will face due to ample liquidity and low interest rates.

‘Like in the early 1990s, managing large capital inflows and prospective bubbles given managed exchange rates will be a major task for policymakers.’

But the road ahead also holds a few potential bumps.

‘The greatest risk to the outlook for Asia is a global economic and financial environment that does not stabilise and recover by 2010. Downside risks remain high, despite signs of stabilisation.’

For instance, US officials may need to ask Congress for more funds if the economy fares worse than expected.

Another risk is the US consumer spending less and saving more. This could result in sustained deflation, and America relapsing into recession.

Protectionism is also a key threat, said Dr Tan, and it is not confined to developed countries as several developing nations also use import restrictions to deal with slowing global demand. ‘There is a danger – probably highest if there is no recovery next year – that protectionism could rise dramatically,’ he added.

On the crisis front, Dr Tan noted that the global economy is stabilising as massive measures taken by governments and central banks start to work through the economies.

‘Confidence is returning and fears of a meltdown in global financial markets and banks have receded,’ he said.

Key economies, including the United States, are expected to post positive growth later this year.

However, Dr Tan tipped lower growth among the developed countries in the coming years, due to deleveraging, derisking, re-regulation and ageing populations.

For instance, the US banking sector will likely be stable enough to support ‘sub-par growth of 1-2 per cent’, but may not be strong enough to support credit needed for a ‘sustained robust growth significantly above 2per cent’.

Another major change is an increased risk of both inflation and deflation.

Dr Tan also noted that emerging economies, anchored by China and India, will play a more important role in the world economy, and are expected to account for more than half of the world’s gross domestic product growth over the next decade.

‘Emerging economies are likely to displace the G-7 as the world’s largest economies over the next 10-15 years, even if per capita incomes still lag behind the developed economies,’ he added.

Source: Straits Times, 7 Aug 2009

Don’t expect quick global recovery: Tharman

Asia will see impact on growth as Americans save more, spend less

FORGET a quick recovery. Getting out of this global downturn is going to be ‘a hard slog’, cautioned Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam yesterday.

Mr Tharman told investors, fund managers and corporate executives at the Nomura Asia Equity forum that while the worst may be over, the global economy is not yet staging a firm recovery and that any pickup will be slower than in previous recessions.

Investors should also be prepared for a slower-growth world and expect unemployment to stay high for an extended period.

‘The weight of evidence suggests this is going to be a hard slog. The recovery over the next two years is going to be slower than previous recoveries, and we cannot rule out setbacks from time to time,’ he warned.

Moreover, the American consumer, after two decades of unsustainably high spending, is saving more, while China’s rising consumption still cannot make up for the shortfall.

‘Chinese consumption growth is not ready to compensate for US consumption growth. Even if they try their hardest, it’s about one-sixth the size of US private consumption,’ he said.

Mr Tharman’s 40-minute address at the Shangri-La Hotel touched on a broad range of issues, from microeconomic reforms for long-term growth to the limits of fiscal and monetary policy measures – the key tools governments typically use to influence demand.

He acknowledged that with the debt-burdened American consumer on the ropes, there will be a significant contraction of real consumption, which will also have an impact on Asia’s growth.

‘Lower (growth) but not unacceptable, given the need to unwind the excesses we’ve seen in the global economy over the last five years,’ Mr Tharman said.

Citing United States data, he said estimates are that if US household debt is brought down from the current 130 per cent of household income to a proportion of 100 per cent, it will require the household savings rate to rise from 4 per cent to 10 per cent over the next 10 years.

‘It’ll lower consumption growth of course… And it’ll have an impact on Asia,’ he said.

He added that gross domestic product expansion in Asia will likely fall to an average of 6.5 per cent over the next few years from 9 per cent during the 2002 to 2007 period.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast that developing economies will probably expand 1.6 per cent as a group this year and 4 per cent in 2010.

Developed nations will contract 3.8 per cent this year and have zero growth next year, the IMF forecast in its April World Economic Outlook report.

Mr Tharman said there are limits to what can be achieved by countries through fiscal and monetary policies.

Fiscal policy has already resulted in a substantial build-up of debt around the world, while most of Asia is on a US Federal Reserve-inspired monetary policy, he said.

‘Interest rates already low, (they) can’t go much lower. And in Asia, (they) can’t go much lower without risking a loss of confidence in your currencies,’ Mr Tharman said.

He urged regional governments to work on microeconomic and social reforms to increase long-term consumption growth, such as developing social security and health insurance policies that would free Asian consumers to spend more and save less.

China is ‘very serious’ about these sort of reforms, he said, pointing out that the country is planning to have a medical clinic in every village by 2012 and national health insurance by 2020.

‘The macroeconomic stimulus story worked well for a year but is both unsustainable and undesirable if continued year after year,’ he said.

‘The real reforms in social security… that story is real, but it takes time.’

A HARD SLOG
‘The weight of evidence suggests this is going to be a hard slog. The recovery over the next two years is going to be slower than previous recoveries, and we cannot rule out setbacks from time to time.’

STILL NOT ENOUGH
‘Chinese consumption growth is not ready to compensate for the US consumption growth. Even if they try their hardest, it’s about one-sixth the size of US private consumption.’

Source: Straits Times, 8 July 2009

Steeper contraction of growth projected

World Bank downgrades earlier predictions in March, citing uncertainty

THE World Bank warned yesterday that prospects for the global economy remained ‘unusually uncertain’, despite recent signs of improvement in parts of the world, and cut this year’s growth forecasts for most economies.

The agency, which has recently cut its forecast for the global economy to a contraction of 2.9 per cent from a projection of a 1.7 per cent decline set in March, released details on individual economies for the first time yesterday.

Growth is expected to return next year with a 2 per cent expansion, lower than the 2.3 per cent prediction about three months ago.

The bank said it will take time for wealthier nations to fix financial systems shaken by a credit crisis that has led to almost US$1.5 trillion (S$2.2 trillion) in write-downs and losses, and wiped out about US$26 trillion in stock market value worldwide since 2007.

Mr Justin Lin, the bank’s chief economist, said in a statement that this hurdle, ‘combined with emerging limits to expansionary policies in high income countries’, will restrain a global rebound.

Agreeing, Mr Marco Huwiler, a strategist at Clariden Leu in Zurich, which manages about US$88 billion, said: ‘We see some positive signals pointing towards a stabilisation, but a V-shaped recovery is not realistic. The growth potential will be lower than before the recession.’

The bank downgraded its forecast for the United States this year, calling for a 3 per cent shrinkage in the world’s biggest economy, after predicting a 2.4 per cent contraction in March.

Japan’s economy will shrink 6.8 per cent this year, more than the bank’s prediction in March of a 5.3 per cent decline, while the Euro area will shrink 4.5 per cent, almost twice as much as the previous 2.7 per cent contraction forecast.

The bank’s global outlook is more pessimistic than the forecast by its sister organisation, the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Fund’s forecast for this year calls for a global contraction of 1.3 per cent, with growth returning to 2.4 per cent next year.

But yesterday, the IMF’s chief economist, Mr Olivier Blanchard, said the lender was currently in the process of revising its economic forecasts, adding that the pace of recovery was likely to prove relatively weak.

New forecasts could be expected early next month, he said, declining to give details.

‘I cannot give a preview of the (new) numbers, but there aren’t going to be dramatic differences,’ he said on the sidelines of a forum. ‘They could be up or down by 1 per cent,’ he said.

He added that an increase in exports is needed for a sustained recovery in the US and this may require an adjustment in the value of the US dollar.

‘For the US, it is absolutely no question that a sustained recovery has to come from a large increase in exports; that may not be very easy to do. This may require fairly substantial adjustments in the dollar,’ he told a conference.

The World Bank yesterday also called on governments around the world for vigilance in drawing up exit strategies to reverse their expansionary monetary and fiscal policies once recovery takes off.

Governments around the world have borrowed billions of dollars to fight the worst economic crisis in decades, providing incentives for businesses and consumers to spend and embarking on big infrastructure programmes to create jobs and stimulate activity. The US is implementing a two-year, US$787 billion stimulus package, while China is spending US$585 billion.

Economics professor Nouriel Roubini from New York University, who predicted the financial crisis, warned yesterday that the global economy may suffer another slump due to the potential ‘double whammy’ of rising oil prices and widening budget deficits.

‘I see the worry of a double whammy’ from energy costs and fiscal burdens, increasing the risk of a setback in the economic recovery, Prof Roubini told a conference. Oil may rise to US$100 a barrel, he said.

Oil prices have more than doubled this year to as much as $73.23 a barrel this month.

European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet warned on Sunday that governments now had no room for more debt and would have to start bringing down budget deficits.

‘There is a moment where you can’t spend any more and you can’t accumulate any more debt. I think we are at that moment,’ Mr Trichet told Europe 1 radio.

REUTERS, BLOOMBERG

Source: Straits Times, 23 June 2009

Too early to say economy is recovering

IT IS still ‘too early’ to conclude that the world economy is in ‘recovery mode’, said Finance Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam yesterday.

While many now point to ‘green shoots’ in some countries and specific industries, he said there is ‘little confidence’ that they will spread across the world economy – or even that they will last.

He noted in his keynote address at yesterday’s KPMG Asia-Pacific IFRS Conference: ‘A large part of the world economy is still contracting. It is too early to conclude that we are in recovery mode.’

The topic of green shoots has been a popular talking point in recent weeks.

Mr Tharman said: ‘The fastest growing sector appears to be the ‘green shoots’ industry itself – as of last night, Google entries on ‘green shoots’ had reached 5.57 million.’

‘Even among the optimists, the consensus is that the recovery when it comes is likely to be weak, given the large and unresolved problems in the global financial system.’

Source: Straits Times, 28 May 2009

Economists not yet revising forecasts

Still no clear signs for second half despite some green shoots, they say

GREEN shoots may have become more evident in the past few days, but they are not enough to convince economists to revise their growth forecasts for Singapore – not yet, at least.

Everyone agrees that the economy will contract this year. It is the size of the contraction that is debatable.

Economists’ estimates range from -4 per cent at Barclays to -8 per cent at Action Economics, while the International Monetary Fund believes it could decline by as much as 10 per cent.

The Government’s estimate is that gross domestic product will shrink by 6 per cent to 9 per cent.
‘Our forecast has already factored in a sequential quarter-on-quarter growth for this year,’ said OCBC economist Selena Ling.

‘Notwithstanding the fact that we see some improvement, this is offset by the service sector slowing faster than we expected… We think rising unemployment numbers will continue to pressure growth.’
Economists generally agree that the market bottomed out in the first quarter and that the worst is over. They are, however, unwilling to speculate beyond that.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said: ‘I think businesses in general have either very little visibility or no visibility beyond June.

‘We know that the second-quarter numbers for Singapore will see a bit of a rebound, but it’s a bit dangerous to extrapolate on a straight line.

‘With the recession taking hold, businesses will be affected, as consumers gradually find that things are tougher on the employment front and income front.’

Mr Song said he saw some improvement, but he questioned whether the pace of the recovery would be sustained in the second half.

Trade numbers for last month will be announced today, while official figures for first-quarter growth will be out on Thursday.

Initial estimates – based largely on the first two months of the year – indicate a sharp drop in GDP of 11.5 per cent from a year earlier.

United Overseas Bank economist Chow Penn Nee felt that the actual figures would ‘probably come out quite similar’ to the advance estimate of 11.5 per cent.

‘From past years’ experience, it doesn’t really deviate much from the advance estimates. So then, we’ll have to wait for the second quarter and see how it picks up,’ said Ms Chow.

Only one economist – Citigroup’s Kit Wei Zheng – has revised his outlook upwards. He said last Tuesday that he was looking at a 5 per cent contraction for the year, an improvement from his previous estimate of -6.4 per cent.

His forecast falls outside the 6 per cent to 9 per cent estimate given by the Government but finds favour with Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho, who predicts a relatively mild slump of 4 per cent.
‘We’ve been looking around the region,’ Mr Leong said. ‘The historical relationships between North Asia and Singapore show electronics-led industrial rebounds, which we have been seeing in North Asia for the past two months.

‘These should trickle down to smaller manufacturing centres like Singapore. So, we believe that in the coming quarters, growth will actually pick up.’

Economists need to see certain signs before they will revise their forecasts.

‘I think there are a few leading indicators,’ said OCBC’s Ms Ling.

‘We are very closely watching what’s happening in the United States and China. The US is a key economy… If the US sees a turnaround, I expect the other Group of Seven economies will also see a pick-up some time in the future.’

Housing sales in China leapt by 35.4 per cent in the first four months of the year, while manufacturing expanded last month.

Economist David Cohen from Action Economics said exports were a key indicator.

‘Export numbers certainly would need to start picking up a little bit, supporting the manufacturing production, which remains quite depressed,’ he said.

‘What we’ve seen so far is a bottoming out rather than any sharp rebound. Yet… there’s no escaping that we will see a sharp contraction for this year’s GDP.’

Source: Straits Times, 18 May 2009

Economists not yet revising forecasts

Still no clear signs for second half despite some green shoots, they say

GREEN shoots may have become more evident in the past few days, but they are not enough to convince economists to revise their growth forecasts for Singapore – not yet, at least.

Everyone agrees that the economy will contract this year. It is the size of the contraction that is debatable.

Economists’ estimates range from -4 per cent at Barclays to -8 per cent at Action Economics, while the International Monetary Fund believes it could decline by as much as 10 per cent.

The Government’s estimate is that gross domestic product will shrink by 6 per cent to 9 per cent.
‘Our forecast has already factored in a sequential quarter-on-quarter growth for this year,’ said OCBC economist Selena Ling.

‘Notwithstanding the fact that we see some improvement, this is offset by the service sector slowing faster than we expected… We think rising unemployment numbers will continue to pressure growth.’
Economists generally agree that the market bottomed out in the first quarter and that the worst is over. They are, however, unwilling to speculate beyond that.

CIMB-GK economist Song Seng Wun said: ‘I think businesses in general have either very little visibility or no visibility beyond June.

‘We know that the second-quarter numbers for Singapore will see a bit of a rebound, but it’s a bit dangerous to extrapolate on a straight line.

‘With the recession taking hold, businesses will be affected, as consumers gradually find that things are tougher on the employment front and income front.’

Mr Song said he saw some improvement, but he questioned whether the pace of the recovery would be sustained in the second half.

Trade numbers for last month will be announced today, while official figures for first-quarter growth will be out on Thursday.

Initial estimates – based largely on the first two months of the year – indicate a sharp drop in GDP of 11.5 per cent from a year earlier.

United Overseas Bank economist Chow Penn Nee felt that the actual figures would ‘probably come out quite similar’ to the advance estimate of 11.5 per cent.

‘From past years’ experience, it doesn’t really deviate much from the advance estimates. So then, we’ll have to wait for the second quarter and see how it picks up,’ said Ms Chow.

Only one economist – Citigroup’s Kit Wei Zheng – has revised his outlook upwards. He said last Tuesday that he was looking at a 5 per cent contraction for the year, an improvement from his previous estimate of -6.4 per cent.

His forecast falls outside the 6 per cent to 9 per cent estimate given by the Government but finds favour with Barclays economist Leong Wai Ho, who predicts a relatively mild slump of 4 per cent.
‘We’ve been looking around the region,’ Mr Leong said. ‘The historical relationships between North Asia and Singapore show electronics-led industrial rebounds, which we have been seeing in North Asia for the past two months.

‘These should trickle down to smaller manufacturing centres like Singapore. So, we believe that in the coming quarters, growth will actually pick up.’

Economists need to see certain signs before they will revise their forecasts.

‘I think there are a few leading indicators,’ said OCBC’s Ms Ling.

‘We are very closely watching what’s happening in the United States and China. The US is a key economy… If the US sees a turnaround, I expect the other Group of Seven economies will also see a pick-up some time in the future.’

Housing sales in China leapt by 35.4 per cent in the first four months of the year, while manufacturing expanded last month.

Economist David Cohen from Action Economics said exports were a key indicator.

‘Export numbers certainly would need to start picking up a little bit, supporting the manufacturing production, which remains quite depressed,’ he said.

‘What we’ve seen so far is a bottoming out rather than any sharp rebound. Yet… there’s no escaping that we will see a sharp contraction for this year’s GDP.’

Source: Straits Times, 18 May 2009

Slump likely to be long and recovery slow: IMF

WASHINGTON: – The current global recession is likely to be unusually long and severe and the recovery sluggish because it sprang from a financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said yesterday.

New IMF analysis shows recessions tied to a financial crisis, like the current one that has its roots in reckless lending for the US housing market, are harder to shake because they are often held back by weak demand.

Worse still is that today’s recession combines a financial crisis at the heart of the United States, the world’s largest economy, with a broader global downturn, making it unique.

‘The analysis suggested that the combination of financial crisis and a globally synchronised downturn is likely to result in an unusually severe and long-lasting recession,’ the IMF said in chapters of its World Economic Outlook, which is to be released in full next Wednesday.

The IMF offered no timeline for a recovery from the first global recession in six decades. It said counter-cyclical policies can help shorten recessions but their impact is limited in the presence of a financial crisis.

Fiscal stimulus can be particularly effective in shortening the life of a recession though not appropriate for countries with high debt levels, it added.

In its most recent forecast, the IMF said the world economy will shrink this year by between 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent, the largest contraction since the Great Depression.

With advanced economies all in recession and growth in emerging market economies slowing abruptly, the IMF has urged countries to move quickly to clean up their financial sectors, in particular removing toxic assets from bank balance sheets.

Turning to emerging economies, the IMF said the current level of financial stress in these countries has already hit peaks seen during the 1997-98 crisis.

Using a new financial stress index, the IMF said current stress levels in advanced economies suggest capital flows to emerging economies, especially flows related to banking, will decline sharply and will recover slowly.

The latest reading from February this year shows that the steepest decline – an annual contraction of 17.6 per cent – was recorded in central and eastern Europe, the region hardest hit by the crisis.

REUTERS, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE

Source: Straits Times, 17 April 2009